What are the odds of writing a bestseller?

Jul 6, 2021 | Writing A Book

“Can you help me write a bestseller?”

Not every prospective client asks me that out loud. But anyone who writes a book wants it to be a bestseller. What are the odds? Not very good. Depending on who’s counting there are 600,000 to 1,000,000 books published in the US in a year. Only a vanishingly small fraction makes it to any bestseller list.

There are several different bestseller lists.

There are several bestseller lists. The New York Times has 11 weekly lists. Amazon lists bestsellers by category and subcategory.

Best seller lists are based on book sales. For the Times, it’s sales at a limited number of select outlets. The bestseller list is updated weekly. Amazon looks at sales from subcategory up to all books on Amazon. They update sales figures hourly for the top 10,000 products in a category.

You have the best odds of getting a bestseller badge on Amazon. That’s because you have some say in the categories where your book will appear.

You will probably achieve bestseller status soon after publication.

There are exceptions, but almost every book that becomes a bestseller achieves that status soon after it’s published. That’s probably because the promotional push for most books lasts only a few weeks. There’s no reason that you can’t actively promote your book every few months.

Your odds get better if you have a following. The bigger the better.

Some writers call it a “platform.” Some call it your “tribe.” I prefer “followers.” The more the better. These are the folks who read your Tweets and blog posts. They get your newsletter and follow you on Facebook and Instagram and whatever’s next.

The best time to start building your following is a year ago. The second-best time is today.

Your odds get better if you have an effective launch.

You’re more likely to win that coveted bestseller status if you plan and execute an effective launch. You can do this yourself. There are many articles that can help. Or you can hire a firm like Becky Robinson’s Weaving Influence.

A little luck can help.

If you have a choice between great planning and good luck, take good luck. Alas, you don’t have a choice. But a bit of luck could propel you to success. Suzi McAlpine knew that burnout was a serious issue when she started planning and researching her book. What she couldn’t know was that public interest in burnout would be approaching flood stage when her book, Beyond Burnout, was published.

Don’t plan for good luck. You can’t. Be grateful if it comes your way. Then seize the opportunities it presents.

Takeaways

There are several different bestseller lists.

You will probably achieve bestseller status soon after publication.

Your odds get better if you have a following. The bigger the better.

Your odds get better if you have an effective launch.

A little luck helps, but don’t plan for it.